Tag Archives: prediction

UA Climate Scientists Put Predictions to the Test

By Guest PostSeptember 18, 2012Environmentaerosol, arizona, atmosphere, climate, climate change, climate model, climate scientist, climate variability, cloud, criteria, deforestation, earth system, emission, fossil fuel, global temperature, greenhouse gas, hindcast, ipcc, koichi sakaguchi, michael brunke, model, ocean current, particle, precipitation, prediction, solar activity, spatial resolution, surface, surface moisture, university, urbanization, volcanic eruption, weather forecaster, xubin zeng

A new study has found that climate-prediction models are good at predicting long-term climate patterns on a global scale but lose their edge when applied to time frames shorter than three decades and on sub-continental scales.

Climate-prediction models show skills in forecasting climate trends over time spans of greater than 30 years and at the geographical scale of continents, but they deteriorate when applied to shorter time frames and smaller geographical regions, a new study has found.

Published in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, the study is one of the first to systematically address a longstanding, fundamental question asked not only by climate scientists and weather forecasters, but the public as well: How good are Earth system models at predicting the surface air temperature trend at different geographical and time scales? (more…)

Researchers Share Surprising Discovery about Coral Reef Ecology

By Guest PostSeptember 4, 2012Environment, Natureacidification, algae, algal symbionts, american samoa, climate change, coastal development, coral reef, coral species, coral tissue, david garrison, DNA, ecology, endosymbionts, environment disturbance, environmental change, environmental stress, french polynesia, functional ecosystem, future, generalists, global stressors, hawaii, himb, hollie putnam, host, manoa, moorea, nsf, ocean acidification, photosynthesis, pollution, prediction, reef corals, ruth gates, skeletal growth, skeletons, soest, stresss, symbiodinium, taiwan, temperatures, theory, threat, tissue sample

Researchers at the UH Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) made a discovery that challenges a major theory in the field of coral reef ecology.

The general assumption has been that the more flexible corals are, regarding which species of single-celled algae (Symbiodinium) they host in coral tissues, the greater ability corals will have to survive environmental stress. In their paper published August 29, 2012, however, scientists at the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology (HIMB) at SOEST and colleagues documented that the more flexible corals are, the more sensitive to environment disturbances they are. (more…)

Rose McDermott: The Political Genome

By Guest PostAugust 31, 2012Politics, Sciencealcoholic, american sense, austrailia, biological measure, biology, capital punishment, courtney coelho, data, democrats, denmark, election result, evolutionary perspective, explosion, fraternal twins, gene, genetic contribution, genetic factor, genetic foundation, genetics, hereditary component, obesity, political genome, political preference, political problem, political science, prediction, public policy, reproductive issue, republicans, rose mcdermott, sex, spectrum, statistical test, trends, united states

A recent review of research co-authored by Rose McDermott highlights the role that genes play in political preferences, an area of study that began to draw significant attention in the last decade. McDermott speaks with Courtney Coelho about this growing field of research, its evolutionary roots, and whether it means anything for the prediction of future election results.

The connection between biology and political science is relatively new, but it’s one that has grown rapidly, with a boom in research linking genetics and political preferences in the last decade. Rose McDermott, professor of political science, has done research on this topic and recently co-authored a review, published in Trends in Genetics, of studies in recent years. (more…)

Model Shows Dramatic Global Decline in Ratio of Workers to Retired People

By Guest PostAugust 26, 2012Economy, General, Politicsadrian raftery, aids epidemics, bayesian statistical approach, China, developed countries, elderly adults, fertility rate, gerhard heilig, hana sevcikova, hiv, India, nan li, Netherlands, patrick gerland, population prediction, prediction, statistical method, statistical model, united kingdom, united nations, united states, university of washington, working age adult, worldwide phenomenon

A new statistical model predicts that by 2100 the number of people older than 85 worldwide will increase more than previously estimated, and there will be fewer working-age adults to support them than previously expected.

The findings, reported by researchers at the University of Washington and the United Nations, suggest an even greater decrease in the coming decades in support for social security programs for elderly adults.

Lead author Adrian Raftery, UW professor of statistics and sociology, was surprised by how dramatically the proportion of the world’s “oldest old” will increase by the end of the century. (more…)

Form, Function and Folding: In Collaboration with Berkeley Lab, a Team of Scientists Move Toward Rational Design of Artificial Proteins

By Guest PostAugust 26, 2012Scienceamino acid, barney yoo, berkeley lab, bioinspired nanomaterial, blind structure, function, glenn butterfoss, ilya chorny, jonathan jaworski, ken dill, kent kirshenbaum, modeling, molecular foundry, n alkyl, natural selection, new york university, peptoid molecule, peptoid trimers, prediction, protein, protein sequence, qm, qm calculation, remd, richard bonneau, ronald zuckermann, stony brook university, structure, synthetic cousin, temple university, vincent voelz, xray crystallography

In the world of proteins, form defines function. Based on interactions between their constituent amino acids, proteins form specific conformations, folding and twisting into distinct, chemically directed shapes. The resulting structure dictates the proteins’ actions; thus accurate modeling of structure is vital to understanding functionality.

Peptoids, the synthetic cousins of proteins, follow similar design rules. Less vulnerable to chemical or metabolic breakdown than proteins, peptoids are promising for diagnostics, pharmaceuticals, and as a platform to build bioinspired nanomaterials, as scientists can build and manipulate peptoids with great precision. But to design peptoids for a specific function, scientists need to first untangle the complex relationship between a peptoid’s composition and its function-defining folded structure. (more…)

Going with the Flow

By Guest PostJuly 29, 2012Environmentalgal blooms, bp settlement, bruce lipphardt, buoys, carthe, deepwater horizon, dennis kirwan, drifters, google earth, gps device, gulf of mexico, helga huntley, ocean current, oceanography, oil spill, plume movement, prediction, satellite gps, university of delaware

Scientists studying ocean currents and oil spills with large-scale experiment

Scientists are releasing hundreds of floating GPS devices into the Gulf of Mexico this week near the Deepwater Horizon site to study the role of ocean currents in oil spills. The experiment is the largest in scale of its kind, deploying 300 satellite-tracked, untethered buoys, called drifters, over the course of two and a half weeks.

“We’re trying to use the drifters as a simulation of an oil spill,” said Dennis Kirwan, Mary A.S. Lighthipe Professor of Marine Studies in the University of Delaware’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment. “This is a big event in oceanography.” (more…)

What’s Happening with the Higgs Boson

By Guest PostJune 28, 2012Scienceantibottom quark, atlas, beate heinemann, CERN, cms, dark matter, data reduction, electron volts, electrons, extra dimension, fermions, gamma rays, geneva, higgs, higgs boson, higgs field, ian hinchliffe, inner detector, Large Hadron Collider, lhc, miniature black holes, murdock gil gilchriese, nuclear research, particles of matter, photon channel, photons, prediction, quarks, Space, specific masses, standard model, supersymmetry, switzerland, tau particles, w bosons

Berkeley Lab scientists, major contributors to the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, explain what the excitement is about

CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, will hold a seminar early in the morning on July 4 to announce the latest results from ATLAS and CMS, two major experiments at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) that are searching for the Higgs boson. Both experimental teams are working down to the wire to finish analyzing their data, and to determine exactly what can be said about what they’ve found.

“We do not yet know what will be shown on July 4th,” says Ian Hinchliffe, a theoretical physicist in the Physics Division at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), who heads the Lab’s participation in the ATLAS experiment. “I have seen many conjectures on the blogs about what will be shown: these are idle speculation. Things are moving very fast this week, and it’s an exciting time at CERN. Many years of hard work are coming to fruition.” (more…)

It’s in the Genes: Research Pinpoints How Plants Know When to Flower

By Guest PostMay 27, 2012Nature, Scienceandrew millar, arabidopsis, barley, benjamin to, biofuels, biology, circadian clock, factors, fkf1 protein, flowering locus t, flowering plants, know, mathematical model, molecular changes, molecular events, photoreceptor, plant, plants, prediction, protein, robert smith, sandra hines, scientists, sequence, shoot apex, sunlight, takato imaizumi, time keeping mechanism, university of edinburgh, university of washington, uw lab, wheat, when to flower, young hun song

Scientists believe they’ve pinpointed the last crucial piece of the 80-year-old puzzle of how plants “know” when to flower.

Determining the proper time to flower, important if a plant is to reproduce successfully, involves a sequence of molecular events, a plant’s circadian clock and sunlight.

Understanding how flowering works in the simple plant used in this study – Arabidopsis – should lead to a better understanding of how the same genes work in more complex plants grown as crops such as rice, wheat and barley, according to Takato Imaizumi, a University of Washington assistant professor of biology and corresponding author of a paper in the May 25 issue of the journal Science. (more…)