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Great Lakes evaporation study dispels misconceptions, points to need for expanded monitoring program

By Guest PostJanuary 22, 2014Environmentandrew suyker, ann arbor, arctic blast, christopher spence, climate change, climate variability, environmental consulting firm, evaporation study, glisa, granite island, great lakes, great lakes evaporation, great lakes ice, high evaporation rate, impact, indicator, john anderton, john lenters, lake michigan, lake superior, lake water balance, light station, limnotech, michigan state university, peter blanken, solar radiation, stannard rock light, university of michigan, water level, weather station, white shoal light

ANN ARBOR — The recent Arctic blast that gripped much of the nation will likely contribute to a healthy rise in Great Lakes water levels in 2014, new research shows. But the processes responsible for that welcome outcome are not as simple and straightforward as you might think.

Yes, extreme winter cold increases ice cover on the Great Lakes, which in turn reduces evaporation by preventing water vapor from escaping into the air. But this simplistic view of winter ice as a mere “cap” on Great Lakes evaporation is giving way to a more nuanced conception, one that considers the complex interplay among evaporation, ice cover and water temperature at different times of year. (more…)

Volcanic Aerosols, not Pollutants, Tamped down Recent Earth Warming, Says CU Study

By Guest PostMarch 3, 2013Environmentasia, atmosphere, boulder, brian toon, change, chemical reactions, China, climate, climate change trends, climate variability, coal burning activities, coal burning pollution, community climate model, cooling the planet, david hoffman, earth, emissions, global volcanic eruptions, greenhouse effect, India, industrial sulfur dioxide, jean paul vernier, jeffrey thayer, noaa, reflect, role of volcanoes, ryan neely, Space, stratospheric aerosol layer, sulfur dioxide, sulfuric acid, sunlight, susan solomon, university of colorado, version 3, volcanoe, waccm, warming on earth, water particles

A team led by the University of Colorado Boulder looking for clues about why Earth did not warm as much as scientists expected between 2000 and 2010 now thinks the culprits are hiding in plain sight — dozens of volcanoes spewing sulfur dioxide.

The study results essentially exonerate Asia, including India and China, two countries that are estimated to have increased their industrial sulfur dioxide emissions by about 60 percent from 2000 to 2010 through coal burning, said lead study author Ryan Neely, who led the research as part of his CU-Boulder doctoral thesis. Small amounts of sulfur dioxide emissions from Earth’s surface eventually rise 12 to 20 miles into the stratospheric aerosol layer of the atmosphere, where chemical reactions create sulfuric acid and water particles that reflect sunlight back to space, cooling the planet. (more…)

Study Provides New Insights on Drought Predictions in East Africa

By Guest PostFebruary 4, 2013Environment20th century, aridity, atmospheric convection, charcoal, climate, climate model simulations, climate variability, columbia university, drought conditions, drought predictions, earth observatory, east africa, east african climate, eastern africa, el niño, famine, future predictions, geologic past, geologist, geopolitical significance, global warming, gulf of aden, historical fluctuations, historical patterns, horn of africa, humanitarian crisis, indian ocean, jason smerdon, jessica tierney, lake sediment cores, lamont-doherty, little brother, little ice age, long term shifts, medieval times, moisture balance, oceanographic institution, pacific, pacific ocean, paleoclimate record, paleorecord, pollen, precipitation, projections, rainfall, region, run off events, study, surface temperatures, temperature, warm sea surface, water isotopes, western indian ocean, whoi, woods hole

Research May Also Help Determine Effects of Global Warming in the Region

With more than 40 million people living under exceptional drought conditions in East Africa, the ability to make accurate predictions of drought has never been more important. In the aftermath of widespread famine and a humanitarian crisis caused by the 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa—possibly the worst drought in 60 years— researchers are striving to determine whether drying trends will continue.

While it is clear that El Niño can affect precipitation in this region of East Africa, very little is known about the drivers of long-term shifts in rainfall. However, new research described in the journal Nature helps explain the mechanisms at work behind historical patterns of aridity in Eastern Africa over many decades, and the findings may help improve future predictions of drought and food security in the region. (more…)

UA Climate Scientists Put Predictions to the Test

By Guest PostSeptember 18, 2012Environmentaerosol, arizona, atmosphere, climate, climate change, climate model, climate scientist, climate variability, cloud, criteria, deforestation, earth system, emission, fossil fuel, global temperature, greenhouse gas, hindcast, ipcc, koichi sakaguchi, michael brunke, model, ocean current, particle, precipitation, prediction, solar activity, spatial resolution, surface, surface moisture, university, urbanization, volcanic eruption, weather forecaster, xubin zeng

A new study has found that climate-prediction models are good at predicting long-term climate patterns on a global scale but lose their edge when applied to time frames shorter than three decades and on sub-continental scales.

Climate-prediction models show skills in forecasting climate trends over time spans of greater than 30 years and at the geographical scale of continents, but they deteriorate when applied to shorter time frames and smaller geographical regions, a new study has found.

Published in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, the study is one of the first to systematically address a longstanding, fundamental question asked not only by climate scientists and weather forecasters, but the public as well: How good are Earth system models at predicting the surface air temperature trend at different geographical and time scales? (more…)

New U-M Computer Model Predicts Cholera Outbreaks Up To 11 Months in Advance

By Guest PostJanuary 23, 2012Environment, Scienceaaron king, annual monsoon flooding, attack rates, bacterium, Bangladesh, capital city, cholera cases, cholera outbreaks, climate change, climate factors, climate sensitive urban core, climate variability, computer model, cycles of cholera, dhaka, diarrheal disease, disease transmission, ecology, el niño southern oscillation, enso episode, fecal oral diseases, mercedes pascual, michael emch, mohammad yunus, pathogen, post monsoon, prediction, risk factors, robert reiner, sanitary conditions, space and time, spatial location, university of michigan, urban periphery, vaccination, vibrio cholera, warning system

ANN ARBOR, Mich.— A new University of Michigan computer model of disease transmission in space and time can predict cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh up to 11 months in advance, providing an early warning system that could help public health officials there.

The new forecast model applies specifically to the capital city of Dhaka and incorporates data on both year-to-year climate variability and the spatial location of cholera cases at the district level. This allowed the researchers to study both local variation in disease transmission and response to climate factors within the megacity of 14 million people. (more…)

Arctic Ice Melt Could Pause in Coming Decades

By Guest PostAugust 14, 2011Environmentamerican geophysical union, arctic ice, arctic observations, arctic sea ice loss, changing arctic climate, climate conditions of the late 20th and early 21st century, climate variability, community climate system model, computer modeling study, effect of climate change on arctic sea ice, emissions of greenhouse gases, jennifer kay, marika holland, most powerful computer climate models, national center for atmospheric research, national science foundation, ncar, nsf, retreat of arctic sea ice, sarah ruth, seasonal variations, software

*Researchers find unexpected results in study of ice cover in the Arctic*

Despite the rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice in recent years, the ice may temporarily stabilize or somewhat expand at times over the next few decades, new research indicates.

Results of a study by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) appear this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), published by the American Geophysical Union.

The National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR’s sponsor, funded the work. (more…)

Global Warming Will Not Significantly Affect Wind Energy Production

By Guest PostMay 6, 2011Environmentamerica, american energy, antoinette winklerprins, atmospheric science, atmospheric temperatures, chihuahua, climate models, climate variability, durango, eastern new mexico, energy patterns, energy production, global temperatures, great lakes, pryor and barthelmie, rebecca barthelmie, sara pryor, southwestern ohio, tamaulipas, united states, wind, wind energy, wind energy production

*Climate models predict stable wind energy patterns over the United States*

Rising global temperatures will not significantly affect wind energy production in the United States concludes a new study published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition.

But warmer temperatures could make wind energy somewhat more plentiful say two Indiana University (IU) Bloomington scientists funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF). (more…)

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