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New U-M Computer Model Predicts Cholera Outbreaks Up To 11 Months in Advance

By Guest PostJanuary 23, 2012Environment, Scienceaaron king, annual monsoon flooding, attack rates, bacterium, Bangladesh, capital city, cholera cases, cholera outbreaks, climate change, climate factors, climate sensitive urban core, climate variability, computer model, cycles of cholera, dhaka, diarrheal disease, disease transmission, ecology, el niño southern oscillation, enso episode, fecal oral diseases, mercedes pascual, michael emch, mohammad yunus, pathogen, post monsoon, prediction, risk factors, robert reiner, sanitary conditions, space and time, spatial location, university of michigan, urban periphery, vaccination, vibrio cholera, warning system

ANN ARBOR, Mich.— A new University of Michigan computer model of disease transmission in space and time can predict cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh up to 11 months in advance, providing an early warning system that could help public health officials there.

The new forecast model applies specifically to the capital city of Dhaka and incorporates data on both year-to-year climate variability and the spatial location of cholera cases at the district level. This allowed the researchers to study both local variation in disease transmission and response to climate factors within the megacity of 14 million people. (more…)

Weather Extremes Are Growing Trend in Northern Australia, Corals Show

By Guest PostFebruary 10, 2011Environmentaims, annual bands, australia, australian institute of marine science, calcium carbonate skeletons, climate patterns, climate scientist, coast, coral colonies, cores, cyclone, dome shaped colonies, el niño southern oscillation, extreme rain, flooding, great barrier reef, growth patterns, janice lough, luminescence, luminometer, near shore corals, northeast queensland, northern australia, porites coral, precipitation, rainfall, summers, townsville, tropical climate pattern, weather extremes

WASHINGTON —The extreme rain events that have caused flooding across northern Australia may become an increasingly familiar occurrence, new research suggests. The study uses the growth patterns in near-shore corals to determine which summers brought more rain than others, creating a centuries-long rainfall record for northern Australia.

“This reconstruction provides a new insight into rainfall in northeast Queensland,” says Janice Lough, climate scientist of the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) in Townsville, Queensland, who authored the study. “These coral samples, which date from 1639 to 1981, suggest that the summer of 1973–1974 was the wettest in 300 years. This summer is now being compared with that record-setting one.” (more…)

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New U-M Computer Model Predicts Cholera Outbreaks Up To 11 Months in Advance

Weather Extremes Are Growing Trend in Northern Australia, Corals Show