Tag Archives: prediction

Made in IBM Labs: IBM Drives the Future of Renewable Energy with New Wind and Solar Forecasting System

Advanced solution combines big data analytics and weather modeling technology to predict output of individual wind turbines

ARMONK, N.Y., – 12 Aug 2013: IBM today announced an advanced power and weather modeling technology that will help utilities increase the reliability of renewable energy resources. The solution combines weather prediction and analytics to accurately forecast the availability of wind power and solar energy. This will enable utilities to integrate more renewable energy into the power grid, helping to reduce carbon emissions while significantly improving clean energy output for consumers and businesses. (more…)

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Outlook is Grim for Mammals and Birds as Human Population Grows

Average Growing Nation Can Expect 10.8 Percent More Threatened Species by 2050

COLUMBUS, Ohio – The ongoing global growth in the human population will inevitably crowd out mammals and birds and has the potential to threaten hundreds of species with extinction within 40 years, new research shows.

Scientists at The Ohio State University have determined that the average growing nation should expect at least 3.3 percent more threatened species in the next decade and an increase of 10.8 percent species threatened with extinction by 2050.

The United States ranks sixth in the world in the number of new species expected to be threatened by 2050, the research showed. (more…)

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Remote Clouds Responsible for Climate Models’ Glitch in Tropical Rainfall

It seems counterintuitive that clouds over the Southern Ocean, which circles Antarctica, would cause rain in Zambia or the tropical island of Java. But new research finds that one of the most persistent biases in global climate models – a phantom band of rainfall just south of the equator that does not occur in reality – is caused by poor simulation of the cloud cover thousands of miles farther to the south.

University of Washington atmospheric scientists hope their results help explain why global climate models mistakenly duplicate the inter-tropical convergence zone, a band of heavy rainfall in the northern tropics, on the other side of the equator. The study appears this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. (more…)

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Economics of Public Health: Study Finds Price for Reducing HIV Risk

With a goal to reduce HIV risk behaviors, researchers investigated whether gay men and male sex workers in Mexico City would participate in a conditional cash transfer program that encourages HIV prevention education and regular testing. A new study in the European Journal of Health Economics reports the price that would get more than 75-percent participation: $288 a year.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. [Brown University] — Studies have found that conditional cash transfer programs, in which governments pay citizens if they consistently practice societally beneficial behaviors, have improved pediatric health care and education in Mexico, increased HIV testing in Malawi, and reduced sexually transmitted infections in Tanzania. Public health researchers therefore investigated whether the idea could be applied to HIV risk behaviors among gay men and male sex workers in Mexico City. A new study reports not only that some members of those populations would change behavior for conditional cash payments, but the exact prices they would accept. (more…)

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New Research Underscores Vulnerability of Wildlife in Low-Lying Hawaiian Islands

HONOLULU, Hawaii — If current climate change trends continue, rising sea levels may inundate low-lying islands across the globe, placing island biodiversity at risk. A new U.S. Geological Survey scientific publication describes the first combined simulations of the effects of sea-level rise and wave action in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, offering the most detailed and multifaceted assessment available of how island biodiversity may be affected by climate change.

The publication, “Predicting Sea-Level Rise Vulnerability of Terrestrial Habitat and Wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands,” by Michelle H. Reynolds, Paul Berkowitz, Karen N. Courtot, Crystal M. Krause, Jamie Carter, and Curt Storlazzi is available online. (more…)

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Climate Dialogue

Renowned geoscientist Richard Alley shares climate history, predictions

About the video: Ice sheet expert Richard Alley told a UD audience about the past and future of Earth’s changing climate when he spoke as part of the DENIN Dialogue Lecture Series.

Richard Alley, Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at Pennsylvania State University, appeared at the University of Delaware’s Mitchell Hall on Nov. 8 to discuss his breakthrough findings about abrupt climate changes in Earth’s past and the implications of his research for Earth’s future. (more…)

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UMD Study: Fiscal Cliff Could Trigger Deep Recession, Fear of Cliff Has Cut GDP Already

COLLEGE PARK, Md. – The so-called “fiscal cliff” has already begun dampening the U.S. economy – even before it officially kicks in – and by year’s end will have cut 2012 GDP an estimated six-tenths of one percent, says a new study conducted by researchers at the University of Maryland’s Interindustry Forecasting Project (Inforum).

The study, called Fiscal Shock: America’s Economic Crisis, is one of the first to look beyond the first year effects of the combined federal spending cuts and tax increases. It projects an escalating impact into 2014 and beyond, as “multiplier” effects of fiscal contraction kick in. (more…)

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Climate Change to Cripple Southwestern Forests

Trees Face Rising Drought Stress and Mortality as Climate Warms

LOS ALAMOS, N.M. — Combine the tree-ring growth record with historical information, climate records, and computer-model projections of future climate trends, and you get a grim picture for the future of trees in the southwestern United States. That’s the word from a team of scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory, the U.S. Geological Survey, University of Arizona, and other partner organizations.

The research, published in Nature Climate Change this week, concluded that if the Southwest is warmer and drier in the near future, widespread tree mortality likely will cause substantial changes in forest and species distributions. (more…)

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