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Pakistan Floods Last Summer Could Have Been Predicted

By Guest PostFebruary 5, 2011Environment, Scienceanna ghelli, Bangladesh, computer models, disaster, downpours, environmental prediction, european weather forecasting center, flood forecasting technique, floods, hydrological model, meteorological agency, monitoring, monsoonal deluges, Pakistan, peter Webster, rainfall, terrain

WASHINGTON — Five days before intense monsoonal deluges unleashed vast floods across Pakistan last July, computer models at a European weather-forecasting center were giving clear indications that the downpours were imminent. Now, a new scientific study that retrospectively examines the raw data from these computer models, has confirmed that, if the information had been processed, forecasters could have predicted extremely accurate rainfall totals 8-10 days beforehand.

The study also finds that the floods themselves could have been predicted if this data, which originated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), had been processed and fed into a hydrological model, which takes terrain into account. (more…)

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Pakistan Floods Last Summer Could Have Been Predicted