Tag Archives: climate models

Study Indicates Hail May Disappear From Colorado’s Front Range by 2070

Summertime hail could all but disappear from the eastern flank of Colorado’s Rocky Mountains by 2070, says a new study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the University of Colorado Boulder’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Less hail damage could be good news for gardeners and farmers, said lead author Kelly Mahoney, a research scientist at CIRES, but a shift from hail to rain can also mean more runoff, which could raise the risk of flash floods. “In this region of elevated terrain, hail may lessen the risk of flooding because it takes awhile to melt,” Mahoney said. “Decision makers may not want to count on that in the future.” (more…)

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Today’s Severe Drought, Tomorrow’s Normal

*Berkeley Lab scientists part of team that analyzed 19 state-of-the-art climate models.*

While the worst drought since the Dust Bowl of the 1930s grips Oklahoma and Texas, scientists are warning that what we consider severe drought conditions in North America today may be normal for the continent by the mid-21st century, due to a warming planet.

A team of scientists from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) came to this conclusion after analyzing 19 different state-of-the-art climate models. Looking at the balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration—the movement of water from soil to air—they found that no matter how rainfall patterns change over the next 100 years, a warming planet leads to drought. Their results were published in the December 2011 issue of the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Hydrometerology. (more…)

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Can Scientists Look at Next Year’s Climate?

Is it possible to make valid climate predictions that go beyond weeks, months, even a year? UCLA atmospheric scientists report they have now made long-term climate forecasts that are among the best ever — predicting climate up to 16 months in advance, nearly twice the length of time previously achieved by climate scientists.

Forecasts of climate are much more general than short-term weather forecasts; they do not predict precise temperatures in specific cities, but they still may have major implications for agriculture, industry and the economy, said Michael Ghil, a distinguished professor of climate dynamics in the UCLA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and senior author of the research. (more…)

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Rising Oceans – Too Late to Turn the Tide?

*Melting ice sheets contributed much more to rising sea levels than thermal expansion of warming ocean waters during the Last Interglacial Period, a UA-led team of researchers has found. The results further suggest that ocean levels continue to rise long after warming of the atmosphere levels off.*

Thermal expansion of seawater contributed only slightly to rising sea levels compared to melting ice sheets during the Last Interglacial Period, a University of Arizona-led team of researchers has found.

The study combined paleoclimate records with computer simulations of atmosphere-ocean interactions and the team’s co-authored paper is accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters(more…)

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Warming Ocean Layers Will Undermine Polar Ice Sheets

*The UA-led research, based on climate models, shows that melting of the ice sheets will occur in this century and next.

Warming of the ocean’s subsurface layers will melt underwater portions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets faster than previously thought, according to new University of Arizona-led research. Such melting would increase the sea level more than already projected.

The research, based on 19 state-of-the-art climate models, proposes a new mechanism by which global warming will accelerate the melting of the great ice sheets during this century and the next. (more…)

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Global Warming Will Not Significantly Affect Wind Energy Production

*Climate models predict stable wind energy patterns over the United States*

Rising global temperatures will not significantly affect wind energy production in the United States concludes a new study published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition.

But warmer temperatures could make wind energy somewhat more plentiful say two Indiana University (IU) Bloomington scientists funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF). (more…)

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Broken Glass Yields Clues to Climate Change

*Ordinary drinking glasses and atmospheric dust particles break apart in similar patterns*

Clues to future climate may be found in the way an ordinary drinking glass shatters.

Results of a study published this week in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences find that microscopic particles of dust can break apart in patterns that are similar to the fragment patterns of broken glass and other brittle objects. (more…)

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Lower Part of Earth’s Atmosphere is Warming, Data Review Concludes

The troposphere, the lower part of the atmosphere closest to the Earth, is warming in ways that are broadly consistent with both theoretical expectations and climate models, according to a new scientific study from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the NOAA-North Carolina State University Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites (CICS).

Since the development of the first climate models in the 1960s, the troposphere has been projected to warm along with the earth’s surface because of the increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This expectation has not significantly changed even with major advances in climate models. (more…)

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