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Melting Sea Ice Threatens Emperor Penguins, Study Finds

By Guest PostJuly 1, 2012Environment, Natureantarctic peninsula, antarctic sea ice, Antarctica, christophe barbraud, climate models, climate variable, demographic model, dion islets, east antarctica, emperor penguins, food web, global temperature, happy feet, henri weimerskirch, ipev, krill, life cycle, marika holland, mark serreze, melting sea ice, nutrient cycle, organism, penguin colony, penguin population, sea bird, sea ice forecasts, shrimplike animal, squid, stephanie jenouvrier, terre adelie, warming temperature, whoi

At nearly four feet tall, the Emperor penguin is Antarctica’s largest sea bird—and thanks to films like “March of the Penguins” and “Happy Feet,” it’s also one of the continent’s most iconic. If global temperatures continue to rise, however, the Emperor penguins in Terre Adélie, in East Antarctica may eventually disappear, according to a new study by led by researchers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). The study was published in the June 20th edition of the journal Global Change Biology.

“Over the last century, we have already observed the disappearance of the Dion Islets penguin colony, close to the West Antarctic Peninsula,” says Stephanie Jenouvrier, WHOI biologist and lead author of the new study. “In 1948 and the 1970s, scientists recorded more than 150 breeding pairs there. By 1999, the population was down to just 20 pairs, and in 2009, it had vanished entirely.” Like in Terre Adélie, Jenouvrier thinks the decline of those penguins might be connected to a simultaneous decline in Antarctic sea ice due to warming temperatures in the region. (more…)

Statistical Analysis Projects Future Temperatures in North America

By Guest PostMay 20, 2012Environmentbayesian statistics, change, climate models, climate projection, emily kang, emissions scenario, great lakes, hudson bay, midwest, narccap, noel cressie, North America, ohio state university, pam frost gorder, projection, rocky mountains, seasonal temperature, spatial statistics, statistical analysis, temperature

COLUMBUS, Ohio – For the first time, researchers have been able to combine different climate models using spatial statistics – to project future seasonal temperature changes in regions across North America.

They performed advanced statistical analysis on two different North American regional climate models and were able to estimate projections of temperature changes for the years 2041 to 2070, as well as the certainty of those projections.

The analysis, developed by statisticians at Ohio State University, examines groups of regional climate models, finds the commonalities between them, and determines how much weight each individual climate projection should get in a consensus climate estimate. (more…)

Study Indicates Hail May Disappear From Colorado’s Front Range by 2070

By Guest PostJanuary 12, 2012Environmentclimate change, climate models, climate warming, colorado, colorado springs, continental divide, decision-makers, denver, downscaled, downscaling technique, eastern flank, flash floods, foothill communities, fort collins, global climate models, greenhouse gases, hail, hail damage, hailstones, james scott, joseph barsugli, kelly mahoney, michael alexander, nature climate change, precipitation, rain, regional scale models, regional topography, risk of flooding, rocky mountains, runoff, thunderstorms, weather scale

Summertime hail could all but disappear from the eastern flank of Colorado’s Rocky Mountains by 2070, says a new study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the University of Colorado Boulder’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Less hail damage could be good news for gardeners and farmers, said lead author Kelly Mahoney, a research scientist at CIRES, but a shift from hail to rain can also mean more runoff, which could raise the risk of flash floods. “In this region of elevated terrain, hail may lessen the risk of flooding because it takes awhile to melt,” Mahoney said. “Decision makers may not want to count on that in the future.” (more…)

Today’s Severe Drought, Tomorrow’s Normal

By Guest PostDecember 7, 2011Environmentatmospheric greenhouse gases, balance, benjamin santer, berkeley lab, canada, century, climate models, david easterling, drought, dust bowl, evapotranspiration, global climate, jay lawrimore, Mexico, michael wehner, noaa, normal occurrence, North America, oklahoma, precipitation, richard heim, russell vose, severe drought conditions, simulations, state-of-the-art, texas, united states, warming planet

*Berkeley Lab scientists part of team that analyzed 19 state-of-the-art climate models.*

While the worst drought since the Dust Bowl of the 1930s grips Oklahoma and Texas, scientists are warning that what we consider severe drought conditions in North America today may be normal for the continent by the mid-21^st century, due to a warming planet.

A team of scientists from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) came to this conclusion after analyzing 19 different state-of-the-art climate models. Looking at the balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration—the movement of water from soil to air—they found that no matter how rainfall patterns change over the next 100 years, a warming planet leads to drought. Their results were published in the December 2011 issue of the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Hydrometerology. (more…)

Can Scientists Look at Next Year’s Climate?

By Guest PostSeptember 11, 2011Environmentclimate dynamics, climate forecasts, climate models, climate predictions, climate sensitivity, predicting climate

Is it possible to make valid climate predictions that go beyond weeks, months, even a year? UCLA atmospheric scientists report they have now made long-term climate forecasts that are among the best ever — predicting climate up to 16 months in advance, nearly twice the length of time previously achieved by climate scientists. (more…)

Rising Oceans – Too Late to Turn the Tide?

By Guest PostJuly 16, 2011Environmentantarctic ice sheets, anthropogenic reasons, atmosphere, atmosphere ocean interactions, bahamas, barbados, bette otto bliesner, cause and effect relationships, climate, climate models, computer simulations, current global warming, earth, global distribution of sea surface temperatures, great polar ice sheets, greenhouse gas concentrations, greenhouse gases, greenland, ice caps, jonathan overpeck, last interglacial period, melting ice sheets, mountain glaciers, natural reasons, nicholas mckay, paleoceanic records, paleoclimate, rising sea levels, sea level, thermal expansion of seawater, thermal expansion of warming ocean waters, university of arizona

*Melting ice sheets contributed much more to rising sea levels than thermal expansion of warming ocean waters during the Last Interglacial Period, a UA-led team of researchers has found. The results further suggest that ocean levels continue to rise long after warming of the atmosphere levels off.*

Thermal expansion of seawater contributed only slightly to rising sea levels compared to melting ice sheets during the Last Interglacial Period, a University of Arizona-led team of researchers has found.

The study combined paleoclimate records with computer simulations of atmosphere-ocean interactions and the team’s co-authored paper is accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters. (more…)

Warming Ocean Layers Will Undermine Polar Ice Sheets

By Guest PostJuly 6, 2011Environmentantarctic ice sheets, atmospheric warming, climate models, future ocean warming, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenland, jianjun yin, joellen l. Russell, nature geosciences, overpeck, polar ice sheets, the university of arizona, undermine polar, underwater, warming air, warming ocean layers, warming of the ocean's subsurface layers, warming seawater

*The UA-led research, based on climate models, shows that melting of the ice sheets will occur in this century and next.

Warming of the ocean’s subsurface layers will melt underwater portions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets faster than previously thought, according to new University of Arizona-led research. Such melting would increase the sea level more than already projected.

The research, based on 19 state-of-the-art climate models, proposes a new mechanism by which global warming will accelerate the melting of the great ice sheets during this century and the next. (more…)

Global Warming Will Not Significantly Affect Wind Energy Production

By Guest PostMay 6, 2011Environmentamerica, american energy, antoinette winklerprins, atmospheric science, atmospheric temperatures, chihuahua, climate models, climate variability, durango, eastern new mexico, energy patterns, energy production, global temperatures, great lakes, pryor and barthelmie, rebecca barthelmie, sara pryor, southwestern ohio, tamaulipas, united states, wind, wind energy, wind energy production

*Climate models predict stable wind energy patterns over the United States*

Rising global temperatures will not significantly affect wind energy production in the United States concludes a new study published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition.

But warmer temperatures could make wind energy somewhat more plentiful say two Indiana University (IU) Bloomington scientists funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF). (more…)

Tag Archives: climate models

*The UA-led research, based on climate models, shows that melting of the ice sheets will occur in this century and next.