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Study Provides New Insights on Drought Predictions in East Africa

By Guest PostFebruary 4, 2013Environment20th century, aridity, atmospheric convection, charcoal, climate, climate model simulations, climate variability, columbia university, drought conditions, drought predictions, earth observatory, east africa, east african climate, eastern africa, el niño, famine, future predictions, geologic past, geologist, geopolitical significance, global warming, gulf of aden, historical fluctuations, historical patterns, horn of africa, humanitarian crisis, indian ocean, jason smerdon, jessica tierney, lake sediment cores, lamont-doherty, little brother, little ice age, long term shifts, medieval times, moisture balance, oceanographic institution, pacific, pacific ocean, paleoclimate record, paleorecord, pollen, precipitation, projections, rainfall, region, run off events, study, surface temperatures, temperature, warm sea surface, water isotopes, western indian ocean, whoi, woods hole

Research May Also Help Determine Effects of Global Warming in the Region

With more than 40 million people living under exceptional drought conditions in East Africa, the ability to make accurate predictions of drought has never been more important. In the aftermath of widespread famine and a humanitarian crisis caused by the 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa—possibly the worst drought in 60 years— researchers are striving to determine whether drying trends will continue.

While it is clear that El Niño can affect precipitation in this region of East Africa, very little is known about the drivers of long-term shifts in rainfall. However, new research described in the journal Nature helps explain the mechanisms at work behind historical patterns of aridity in Eastern Africa over many decades, and the findings may help improve future predictions of drought and food security in the region. (more…)

Researchers Find Ocean Temperature Threshold for Hurricanes is Rising

Average observed tropical (black) and estimated SST (blue) rose together in the last 30 years. Image credit: University of Hawaii at Mānoa

Scientists have long known that atmospheric convection in the form of hurricanes and tropical ocean thunderstorms tends to occur when sea surface temperature rises above a threshold. So how do rising ocean temperatures with global warming affect this threshold? If the threshold does not rise, it could mean more frequent hurricanes.

A new study by researchers at the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) of the University of Hawaii at Mānoa shows this threshold sea surface temperature for convection is rising under global warming at the same rate as that of the tropical oceans. Their paper appears in the Advance Online Publications of Nature Geoscience. (more…)

Tag Archives: atmospheric convection

Study Provides New Insights on Drought Predictions in East Africa

Researchers Find Ocean Temperature Threshold for Hurricanes is Rising