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Predicting hotspots for future flu outbreaks

This year’s unusually long and rocky flu season would be nothing compared to the pandemic that could occur if bird flu became highly contagious among humans, which is why UCLA researchers and their colleagues are creating new ways to predict where an outbreak could emerge.

“Using surveillance of influenza cases in humans and birds, we’ve come up with a technique to predict sites where these viruses could mix and generate a future pandemic,” said lead author Trevon Fuller, a UCLA postdoctoral research fellow at the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability’s Center for Tropical Research. (more…)

Climate Change Could Increase Levels of Avian Influenza in Wild Birds

By Guest PostAugust 31, 2012Environment, Naturea h5n1, american black duck, Arctic, avian influenza, biogeographic population, bird flu, choreographed interaction, climate change, delaware bay, domestic poultry, heat waves, horseshoe crab, human health, human infection, increase, influenza infection, level, mallards, mathematical model, melting glaciers, michigan, migratory flight, migratory paths, migratory shorebird, north american, pejman rohani, planetary woes, population ecologist, rainstorms, risk, sea levels, species, type a virus, university, victoria brown, western hemisphere, wild birds

ANN ARBOR, Mich.— Rising sea levels, melting glaciers, more intense rainstorms and more frequent heat waves are among the planetary woes that may come to mind when climate change is mentioned. Now, two University of Michigan researchers say an increased risk of avian influenza transmission in wild birds can be added to the list.

Population ecologists Pejman Rohani and Victoria Brown used a mathematical model to explore the consequences of altered interactions between an important species of migratory shorebird and horseshoe crabs at Delaware Bay as a result of climate change. (more…)

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Predicting hotspots for future flu outbreaks

Climate Change Could Increase Levels of Avian Influenza in Wild Birds