Tag Archives: thomas smith

Predicting hotspots for future flu outbreaks

This year’s unusually long and rocky flu season would be nothing compared to the pandemic that could occur if bird flu became highly contagious among humans, which is why UCLA researchers and their colleagues are creating new ways to predict where an outbreak could emerge.

“Using surveillance of influenza cases in humans and birds, we’ve come up with a technique to predict sites where these viruses could mix and generate a future pandemic,” said lead author Trevon Fuller, a UCLA postdoctoral research fellow at the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability’s Center for Tropical Research. (more…)

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West Nile Virus More Prevalent in Low-income Neighborhoods, Study Finds

Image credit: University of California

Low-income neighborhoods appear to be the most susceptible to West Nile virus, a mosquito-transmitted disease that is linked to more than 1,000 deaths since in the United States since 1999, according to new UCLA-lead research.

Using data on infected humans and mosquitoes from the West Nile virus hotspot of Orange County, Calif., from 2005-08, scientists found that per-capita income and other economic conditions were the single greatest predictor of occurrence, explaining 85-95 percent of the variation. While economic conditions have previously been linked to disease, the study is the first to use a rigorous statistical model.  (more…)

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