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Researchers Devise More Accurate Method for Predicting Hurricane Activity

Researchers from North Carolina State University have developed a new method for forecasting seasonal hurricane activity that is 15 percent more accurate than previous techniques.

“This approach should give policymakers more reliable information than current state-of-the-art methods,” says Dr. Nagiza Samatova, an associate professor of computer science at NC State and co-author of a paper describing the work. “This will hopefully give them more confidence in planning for the hurricane season.” (more…)

Model Shows Dramatic Global Decline in Ratio of Workers to Retired People

By Guest PostAugust 26, 2012Economy, General, Politicsadrian raftery, aids epidemics, bayesian statistical approach, China, developed countries, elderly adults, fertility rate, gerhard heilig, hana sevcikova, hiv, India, nan li, Netherlands, patrick gerland, population prediction, prediction, statistical method, statistical model, united kingdom, united nations, united states, university of washington, working age adult, worldwide phenomenon

A new statistical model predicts that by 2100 the number of people older than 85 worldwide will increase more than previously estimated, and there will be fewer working-age adults to support them than previously expected.

The findings, reported by researchers at the University of Washington and the United Nations, suggest an even greater decrease in the coming decades in support for social security programs for elderly adults.

Lead author Adrian Raftery, UW professor of statistics and sociology, was surprised by how dramatically the proportion of the world’s “oldest old” will increase by the end of the century. (more…)

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Researchers Devise More Accurate Method for Predicting Hurricane Activity

Model Shows Dramatic Global Decline in Ratio of Workers to Retired People