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Roots of Deadly 2010 India Flood Identified; Findings Could Improve Warnings

On the night of Aug. 5, 2010, as residents slept, water began rushing through Leh, an Indian town in a high desert valley in the Himalayas.

Average total rainfall in the area for August is about a half-inch. During this 24-hour period more than 8 inches fell, causing severe damage and leaving 193 dead, hundreds missing and thousands homeless.

“Flash flooding events don’t happen often but when they do they are some of the scariest, most dangerous and quickest natural disasters that can happen,” said Kristen Rasmussen, a University of Washington graduate student in atmospheric sciences. “But now that we know what types of conditions to look out for, flash flood warnings in remote regions of India might be possible.” (more…)

UA Climate Scientists Put Predictions to the Test

By Guest PostSeptember 18, 2012Environmentaerosol, arizona, atmosphere, climate, climate change, climate model, climate scientist, climate variability, cloud, criteria, deforestation, earth system, emission, fossil fuel, global temperature, greenhouse gas, hindcast, ipcc, koichi sakaguchi, michael brunke, model, ocean current, particle, precipitation, prediction, solar activity, spatial resolution, surface, surface moisture, university, urbanization, volcanic eruption, weather forecaster, xubin zeng

A new study has found that climate-prediction models are good at predicting long-term climate patterns on a global scale but lose their edge when applied to time frames shorter than three decades and on sub-continental scales.

Climate-prediction models show skills in forecasting climate trends over time spans of greater than 30 years and at the geographical scale of continents, but they deteriorate when applied to shorter time frames and smaller geographical regions, a new study has found.

Published in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, the study is one of the first to systematically address a longstanding, fundamental question asked not only by climate scientists and weather forecasters, but the public as well: How good are Earth system models at predicting the surface air temperature trend at different geographical and time scales? (more…)

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Roots of Deadly 2010 India Flood Identified; Findings Could Improve Warnings

UA Climate Scientists Put Predictions to the Test