A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program. (more…)
Digital Advertising and Social Media Play Prominent Roles in Political Campaigns, Delivering Amplified Exposure and Facilitating Online Fundraising
RESTON, VA, April 30, 2012 – comScore, Inc., a leader in measuring the digital world, today released a report analyzing the use of digital media in the 2012 U.S. presidential election to date. Entitled The Digital Politico: 5 Ways Digital Media is Shaping the 2012 Presidential Election, the report examines key trends shaping the current election cycle in areas such as social media, digital advertising, and paid search. To download a complimentary copy of the report, please visit: https://www.comscore.com/DigitalPolitico.
“Digital media has emerged over the past few election cycles as a formidable platform for political campaigns, providing the ability to efficiently target campaign messages and reach key voting constituencies at a fraction of the cost of traditional media,” said Andrew Lipsman, VP of Industry Analysis at comScore. “Political blogs, online advertising and online fundraising have helped shape the past few elections, but 2012 will almost certainly be remembered as the ‘social media election’ given how central Facebook and Twitter have become to the current digital battleground.” (more…)
Many Americans overestimate the degree of polarization between Democrats and Republicans, and this misconception is associated with citizens’ voting behavior and their involvement in political activities, according to new findings from the University of Colorado Boulder.
“It is clear that Americans see themselves as very sharply polarized,” said Professor Leaf Van Boven, who led the research efforts. “And that the extent of perceived polarization dramatically overstates the actual degree of polarization.” (more…)
